Energy Transition Planning in Achieving the 2060 Net-Zero Emissions Target in the Electricity Sector of North Sumatra Province

Abstract

Accessibility, adequacy, and environmental sustainability principles in providing a national electricity supply will become key demands in the coming years. The energy transition from fossil fuel sources to renewable energy is necessary to mitigate the impact of climate change, with projections towards the Net-Zero Emissions target by 2060 in Indonesia. The study aims to model energy transition scenarios, evaluate the optimal renewable energy mix, and determine emission reduction strategies in the electricity sector using LEAP-NEMO software. This study uses a forecasting-based simulation modeling method with a mathematical approach through LEAP software and NEMO optimization framework. Three scenarios were analyzed, namely Business As Usual (BAU), Net Zero Emissions Carbon Capture Storage (NZE CCS), and Net Zero Emissions Full Renewable Energy (NZE FRE).

The study results show that by 2060, the NZE FRE scenario can achieve a 100% renewable energy mix, compared to the BAU scenario (42.1%) and the NZE CCS scenario (70.8%). Solar, biomass, hydro, and geothermal energy are projected to be the main sources of electricity generation in the NZE FRE scenario, with solar energy as the largest contributor. The NZE FRE scenario is also proven to be the most effective in reducing greenhouse gas emissions by up to 265.9 million tons of CO₂, or 70.5% of avoidable greenhouse gas emissions, compared to the BAU scenario. Although the cost of the NZE FRE scenario is higher, it can provide lower external impacts and long-term benefits in environmental sustainability.