Economic Analysis of Remaining Geothermal Reserves to Increase Geothermal Power Plant Capacity in Achieving National Energy Mix Target
Keywords:
Geothermal Proven Reserves, Monte Carlo Simulation, Net Present ValueAbstract
In order to meet the renewable energy mix target related to the installed capacity of Geothermal Power Plants in 2025 of 7,200 MW, with the potential of geothermal resources of 23,060 MW, only 2,360 MW has been utilized as a Geothermal Power Plant. In the Geothermal Working Area "XYZ" there are potential geothermal reserves of 464 MW, but only 55 MW (12%) has been utilized as a Geothermal Power Plant. Increasing the generating capacity in the "XYZ" Geothermal Working Area that has been operating can reduce the risk level of geothermal resources, initial investment costs, and plant construction time because the geothermal development process does not start from the initial stage. The purpose of this study is to evaluate and analyze the investment in geothermal power plant capacity development using Monte Carlo Simulation in decision-making, by taking into account uncertain variables such as capacity factor, interest rate, inflation, tax, proportion of equity financing, and construction period. The analysis results show that the investment scheme for developing generating capacity by maximizing geothermal reserves increases the probability of a positive Net Present Value
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Copyright (c) 2023 Noval Suryadi, Iwa Garniwa M.K
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